With Justine Henin putting up a Roger Federeresque year in 2007, the resurgence of the Williams sisters and the arrival of two instant crowd favorites from Serbia, the WTA is coming off a pretty good year. This season proves to be even better though, as we welcome back the still-going-strong Lindsay Davenport, and can expect a group of exciting young players making great strides towards the elite ranks of the game.
The season got off to the right start, with Serena Williams claiming (again) that she wants the No. 1 ranking back. As long as Serena doesn’t put in the extra hours on the practice courts and starts working on her physique so she doesn’t get injured every other week, that’s never going to happen again.
Henin supreme again?
Will Justine Henin be as dominant in ’08 as she was last season? Not likely. Yes, she’ll finish the year as No.1 again, but putting up a whopping 63-4 record and winning 2 out of 3 Slams she competed in will be nearly impossible to match. The outstanding year-end championships final against an injury-troubled Maria Sharapova showed that the Russian will be a tough nut to crack for the Belgian on faster surfaces, if Masha has left her shoulder troubles behind her and can play a full schedule again. Sharapova doesn’t fold under pressure and has the belief she can take on anyone. She’s still only 20 years old and although there’s little variety in her game, the WTA’s biggest asset keeps developing as a player and should have a Slam in her this year.
Serbian honours
There wasn’t much between Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic in 2007, but the latter has more potential for greatness and could establish herself as the undisputed Serbian No. 1 in 2008. Jankovic moves better than her countrywoman, but she lacks firepower. What J.J. mostly needs to work on is turning her serve from a weakness into a strength or she’ll continue to be put under constant pressure on her own delivery. Let’s not forget about doing some rescheduling either.
Ivanovic needs to learn not to get too excited after hitting one or two great shots early on in a match. She’s often too energized for her own good and it hurts her consistency. When she calms down after some emotional outbursts, she often drops a level and starts missing easy shots. When Ivanovic becomes a better match player, she’ll be a legitimate Slam contender.
Sister act
I already wrote a little about Serena, but let’s take a closer look at the Williamses. It promises to be a very interesting year for the sisters, as both Venus and Serena are now back in the Top 10 and again forces to be reckoned with. They both won a Slam last year and that’s a scenario we could see again in 2008. Serena will be the defending champion in Australia in two weeks, but Venus has been the better of the two for the second half of last year. What’s been interesting to see during those successful months for Venus, is how she has made serious work of improving her game and adding variety. She has especially become a much more skilled player around the net, although she’ll never have the natural feel of a Henin. Venus’ willingness to add to her game is a big difference with Serena, who is still the same old wham-bam cannonball machine she’s always been. That’ll probably never change, considering Serena doesn’t have the agility of her sister, and still struggles with staying healthy for a full season.
Who’s next?
Anna Chakvetadze had a stellar 2007 and for a moment cracked the Top 5. Tatiana Golovin is starting to fulfil some of her potential and finished a career high No. 13. Nicole Vaidisova has recovered from injuries and mono and has all the makings of becoming a top player. Then there was the unexpected breakthrough from Marion Bartoli, while young Hungarian Agnes Szavay rocketed from No. 189 at the start of the year to a No. 20 finish. What’s in store for these young guns?
Chakvetadze might grind to a halt in ’08 after an outstanding 2007, unless she finds a way to start beating the top players and controlling her emotions on court. Bartoli is a fine player, but she won’t do much better than her current No. 10 ranking. Golovin, Vaidisova and Szavay should all improve, and especially the first two should become solid Top-10ers this year.
Don’t expect too much from…
Svetlana Kuznetsova
Kuznetsova was a steady performer in 2007, but she won’t hold on to her No. 2 ranking for long. Kuzy is a contender at Roland Garros, but at the other majors she doesn’t rank among the top favorites. The Russian will have a tough time finishing the year in the Top 5.
Daniela Hantuchova
Hantuchova is 24 years old, but it feels like the Slovak has been around forever. She sneaked into the year-end championships by winning Linz in the last week of the season, but Dani’s long-term Top 10 potential is limited.
Nadia Petrova
Once dubbed the greatest player of her generation never to have won a Grand Slam, Nadia Petrova is on the decline. The 25-year-old Russian is having a hard time fighting injuries and when she is fit, can’t keep up with the best players in the game.
Amelie Mauresmo
The Frenchwoman had a horrendous 2007 after her career year in ’06, but now that she’s fit and recharged her batteries, Mauresmo should bounce back and put up some solid results again. One more year in the Top 10 is not unlikely, although competition is getting harder for Momo. Don’t count on more Grand Slam titles for the 28-year-old.
Elena Dementieva
She was supposed to become the first Russian woman to win a Grand Slam. But when Dementieva lost the Roland Garros final in 2004 to countrywoman Anastasia Myskina, she had blown her biggest opportunity. Lena D. was troubled by injuries for most part of 2007, but her time seems to have past nonetheless. She remains one of the best movers on tour with a rock-solid game, but new generation power-hitters such as Ivanovic have past her by. Dementieva will have to settle for the Top 15.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Monday, December 31, 2007
2008: What’s in store?
Before we’ve even headed into the new year, the ATP and WTA Tour have already begun the 2008 tennis season. The men are spread out over 3 events (Doha, Chennai, Adelaide) and the women feature in two small tourneys down under (Auckland, Gold Coast). Five tournaments have gone underway before we’ve officially hit 2008. Where else than in tennis?
I got an automated e-mail from Eurosport this morning alerting me about their first tennis broadcast of the new season. December 31, 12:30 CET: ATP Doha (Day 1). I feel a slight rush. A brand new tennis year is about to start. I turned on my TV during lunch and there it was: live tennis. The first match of the season? Igor Andreev vs Thomas Johansson. Hardly an encounter to get excited about, but after a one-month drought of watching tennis, the mere sight of seeing that little yellow ball fly over the net again becomes a treat. We all know that tennis has too short an off-season, but for me, a month is all it takes to get my batteries reloaded. I am refreshed. Now we’ll see if the players can say the same thing.
Roger Federer is still enjoying some time off, but Rafael Nadal is already back in action, playing in Chennai. In 2007, he lost in the semifinal to Xavier Malisse, who went on to win the tournament before running into a long-term injury. The X-man returns to India trying to get back to the Top 30 in 2008. Novak Djokovic is not defending his title in Adelaide, the Serb is playing the Hopman Cup alongside Jelena Jankovic. Serena Williams is also playing the team event. The other elite women are laying low for opening week.
So with the new season now officially on its way, what can we expect from the Olympic year? Here’s a look at the men’s game. I’ll have a post on the ladies tomorrow.
The top dogs
Federer, Nadal, Djokovic
All eyes will be on Roger Federer again in 2008, as he aims to complete his career Grand Slam at Roland Garros, win a record sixth-straight Wimbledon and claim his first Olympic Gold medal. Oh, and there’s that record Pete owns. Federer needs two Slams in ’08 to tie Sampras’ 14 majors, and will surpass him if he equals the performance of his last two years, in which he won 3 big ones each. I think at the end of the year, we’ll have a tie between Fed and the Pistol.
Then there’s Rafael Nadal. Does he, or does he not have a chronic foot injury? He does have at least a couple other chronic problems: failing to win a major outside of clay and flunking the second half of the season. 2008 will be make or break time for Rafa, as he needs to find a way to beat Federer at a Slam outside of Paris and meanwhile has to fend off the challenges of players coming up behind him.
That brings us to Novak Djokovic. The Djoker was seriously burned out at the end of ’07 after a career year and now starts a season where people will expect big results at every event from the No. 3 player. Can Djokovic cope with the pressure of having to defend his performances from last season, and become a true contender for the top spot? Nole has a great desire to be the best and always believes he can win, no matter who he plays. This is a champion’s attitude, and it’ll win him big trophies in the future. It just might start in 2008.
Young ones to watch
Murray, Monfils, Del Potro, Gulbis
Andy Murray finished 2007 ranked No. 11 without winning a single match on clay and missing Wimbledon. Whether or not his split with Brad Gilbert was a good move remains to be seen, but if he stays injury-free, Murray should be a lock for a Top 5 position. The Scot has a similar belief in his game as Djokovic has, but he has to learn how to control his anger and not let matches slip away too easily. Sometimes he doesn’t focus enough. When he does, he’ll be a threat to the Top 3.
Gael Monfils will be 22 years old in September. He reached a career high ranking of 23 last year, but has the potential to become a Top 5 player. I’ve always considered Monfils to be more talented than his countryman Richard Gasquet, but injuries and a lack of smartness on court have held the crowd-pleaser back.
Juan Martin Del Potro ended 2006 as No. 92 and moved up almost 50 spots to No. 44. The 19-year-old Argentine needs to learn how to play the big points and get more out of his monster serve and he’ll be a lock for the Top 20.
Best remembered for his 6-1, 6-3, 6-2 trouncing of Tommy Robredo at the US Open, Ernests Gulbis moved up nearly 100 positions in 2007 to No. 46 before falling back to his current No. 61. The Latvian has the ability to completely outhit an opponent, which he did against Robredo, but he hasn’t won too many matches at the big events yet. Will have to follow up his US Open run in 2008 and reach a consistent level.
The veterans
Roddick, Davydenko, Gonzalez, Haas, Ljubicic, …
Believe it or not, Andy Roddick has become a veteran at the age of 25. He has now won a Grand Slam, reached two Wimbledon finals and brought the Davis Cup back to the States. He actually finished as year-end No.1 once. That’s a very respectable record, though we all know he will never become an all-time American great. Or it would have to be because of his Davis Cup performances if he wins it a few more times.
Roddick has gotten the most out of his career so far. He just doesn’t come close to matching Federer for talent and that is why he gets slapped in the face every time he faces the Swiss. Credit the Rod for trying though, he always fires himself up before facing Federer and says he believes he can win.
Roddick will probably never win another Slam. I don’t see him returning to the Top 3, either. Comparing Roddick to these other veterans, it’s actually quite unfair to list Andy among the Davydenkos, Gonzalezes and Ljubicices of this world. Neither of them owns a single major. However, Roddick is not much more of a threat at the Slams these days than Davydenko, Gonzalez or Blake. Sure he might be a dark horse at Wimbledon, but to win the event? Roddick has been surpassed by Djokovic and Andy Murray will probably be next. Neither of the veterans will be Grand Slam favorites in 2008. Most of them will decline.
The wild cards
Nalbandian, Hewitt, Ferrer
Everybody loves David Nalbandian. Everybody hates him too. His jawdropping backhands, his inexplicable losses. The Argentine is like a South-American version of Marat Safin, but where the Russian is no longer a potential Top-5 player, Nalbandian could still rank among the best. After his whopping end to 2007, all eyes will be on Nalby to see if he can finally win his first Grand Slam title in Melbourne. It just might be that for Nalbandian his best years are still ahead of him.
The latter can definitely not be said for Lleyton Hewitt. Rusty will never be the No. 1 player in the world again, and his chances of winning another major are almost non-existent, too. However, I do believe that if Hewitt doesn’t run into more injury problems, he’ll return to the Top 10 this year.
To round off this post, let’s not forget about David Ferrer. Were it not for his excellent year-end performances, the Spaniard would hover in the veterans group. However, with his semifinal showing at the US Open and of course his first big final at the Masters Cup, Ferrer has become a player to watch for 2008. How far can this grinding warrior go? I find it hard to believe that Ferrer will end the year as high as his current No. 5 ranking. But he has suddenly proven to himself that he can beat the top players and his confidence level is now higher than ever. Who knows, we may be in for two dazzling David’s this coming year.
Happy new year everyone. And here’s to a great tennis season.
I got an automated e-mail from Eurosport this morning alerting me about their first tennis broadcast of the new season. December 31, 12:30 CET: ATP Doha (Day 1). I feel a slight rush. A brand new tennis year is about to start. I turned on my TV during lunch and there it was: live tennis. The first match of the season? Igor Andreev vs Thomas Johansson. Hardly an encounter to get excited about, but after a one-month drought of watching tennis, the mere sight of seeing that little yellow ball fly over the net again becomes a treat. We all know that tennis has too short an off-season, but for me, a month is all it takes to get my batteries reloaded. I am refreshed. Now we’ll see if the players can say the same thing.
Roger Federer is still enjoying some time off, but Rafael Nadal is already back in action, playing in Chennai. In 2007, he lost in the semifinal to Xavier Malisse, who went on to win the tournament before running into a long-term injury. The X-man returns to India trying to get back to the Top 30 in 2008. Novak Djokovic is not defending his title in Adelaide, the Serb is playing the Hopman Cup alongside Jelena Jankovic. Serena Williams is also playing the team event. The other elite women are laying low for opening week.
So with the new season now officially on its way, what can we expect from the Olympic year? Here’s a look at the men’s game. I’ll have a post on the ladies tomorrow.
The top dogs
Federer, Nadal, Djokovic
All eyes will be on Roger Federer again in 2008, as he aims to complete his career Grand Slam at Roland Garros, win a record sixth-straight Wimbledon and claim his first Olympic Gold medal. Oh, and there’s that record Pete owns. Federer needs two Slams in ’08 to tie Sampras’ 14 majors, and will surpass him if he equals the performance of his last two years, in which he won 3 big ones each. I think at the end of the year, we’ll have a tie between Fed and the Pistol.
Then there’s Rafael Nadal. Does he, or does he not have a chronic foot injury? He does have at least a couple other chronic problems: failing to win a major outside of clay and flunking the second half of the season. 2008 will be make or break time for Rafa, as he needs to find a way to beat Federer at a Slam outside of Paris and meanwhile has to fend off the challenges of players coming up behind him.
That brings us to Novak Djokovic. The Djoker was seriously burned out at the end of ’07 after a career year and now starts a season where people will expect big results at every event from the No. 3 player. Can Djokovic cope with the pressure of having to defend his performances from last season, and become a true contender for the top spot? Nole has a great desire to be the best and always believes he can win, no matter who he plays. This is a champion’s attitude, and it’ll win him big trophies in the future. It just might start in 2008.
Young ones to watch
Murray, Monfils, Del Potro, Gulbis
Andy Murray finished 2007 ranked No. 11 without winning a single match on clay and missing Wimbledon. Whether or not his split with Brad Gilbert was a good move remains to be seen, but if he stays injury-free, Murray should be a lock for a Top 5 position. The Scot has a similar belief in his game as Djokovic has, but he has to learn how to control his anger and not let matches slip away too easily. Sometimes he doesn’t focus enough. When he does, he’ll be a threat to the Top 3.
Gael Monfils will be 22 years old in September. He reached a career high ranking of 23 last year, but has the potential to become a Top 5 player. I’ve always considered Monfils to be more talented than his countryman Richard Gasquet, but injuries and a lack of smartness on court have held the crowd-pleaser back.
Juan Martin Del Potro ended 2006 as No. 92 and moved up almost 50 spots to No. 44. The 19-year-old Argentine needs to learn how to play the big points and get more out of his monster serve and he’ll be a lock for the Top 20.
Best remembered for his 6-1, 6-3, 6-2 trouncing of Tommy Robredo at the US Open, Ernests Gulbis moved up nearly 100 positions in 2007 to No. 46 before falling back to his current No. 61. The Latvian has the ability to completely outhit an opponent, which he did against Robredo, but he hasn’t won too many matches at the big events yet. Will have to follow up his US Open run in 2008 and reach a consistent level.
The veterans
Roddick, Davydenko, Gonzalez, Haas, Ljubicic, …
Believe it or not, Andy Roddick has become a veteran at the age of 25. He has now won a Grand Slam, reached two Wimbledon finals and brought the Davis Cup back to the States. He actually finished as year-end No.1 once. That’s a very respectable record, though we all know he will never become an all-time American great. Or it would have to be because of his Davis Cup performances if he wins it a few more times.
Roddick has gotten the most out of his career so far. He just doesn’t come close to matching Federer for talent and that is why he gets slapped in the face every time he faces the Swiss. Credit the Rod for trying though, he always fires himself up before facing Federer and says he believes he can win.
Roddick will probably never win another Slam. I don’t see him returning to the Top 3, either. Comparing Roddick to these other veterans, it’s actually quite unfair to list Andy among the Davydenkos, Gonzalezes and Ljubicices of this world. Neither of them owns a single major. However, Roddick is not much more of a threat at the Slams these days than Davydenko, Gonzalez or Blake. Sure he might be a dark horse at Wimbledon, but to win the event? Roddick has been surpassed by Djokovic and Andy Murray will probably be next. Neither of the veterans will be Grand Slam favorites in 2008. Most of them will decline.
The wild cards
Nalbandian, Hewitt, Ferrer
Everybody loves David Nalbandian. Everybody hates him too. His jawdropping backhands, his inexplicable losses. The Argentine is like a South-American version of Marat Safin, but where the Russian is no longer a potential Top-5 player, Nalbandian could still rank among the best. After his whopping end to 2007, all eyes will be on Nalby to see if he can finally win his first Grand Slam title in Melbourne. It just might be that for Nalbandian his best years are still ahead of him.
The latter can definitely not be said for Lleyton Hewitt. Rusty will never be the No. 1 player in the world again, and his chances of winning another major are almost non-existent, too. However, I do believe that if Hewitt doesn’t run into more injury problems, he’ll return to the Top 10 this year.
To round off this post, let’s not forget about David Ferrer. Were it not for his excellent year-end performances, the Spaniard would hover in the veterans group. However, with his semifinal showing at the US Open and of course his first big final at the Masters Cup, Ferrer has become a player to watch for 2008. How far can this grinding warrior go? I find it hard to believe that Ferrer will end the year as high as his current No. 5 ranking. But he has suddenly proven to himself that he can beat the top players and his confidence level is now higher than ever. Who knows, we may be in for two dazzling David’s this coming year.
Happy new year everyone. And here’s to a great tennis season.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Dominating Federer restores order in Shanghai
He was vulnerable in the Wimbledon final against Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic was on his heels in the US Open final and in recent weeks, he lost in consecutive events to David Nalbandian. When he started off the Tennis Masters Cup with a loss to Fernando Gonzalez, Roger Federer had to bounce back from two straight defeats for the first time in over four years time. Djokovic and Nadal were starting to become real challengers for the No. 1 position.
But Federer proved that despite his endless winning streaks, he doesn’t get shaken up by one or two losses, and he surely isn’t scared about the tougher competition he’s been getting over the past months. It’s true that Nadal hasn’t reached his best form after Wimbledon, but Federer steamrolled past the Spaniard in the semis, and he was never troubled by David Ferrer in Sunday’s final either. By defending his Tennis Masters Cup title in style to end the season, Federer sends a message to his rivals that he is still king of the courts, even though he wasn’t even close to playing to his best in more than a couple of events over the past year. In the end, all that matters are his three Grand Slam crowns, and another year-end championship title, which marks another outstanding season for the Swiss.
Against Ferrer, Federer was playing extremely dominant tennis in the first set. He was ripping his forehands and never offered his opponent the opportunity to get in a rhythm, by constantly mixing up his play and keeping the rallies short. Ferrer never got close to the form he had displayed throughout the event.
I was a little surprised however, that after Federer won the opening set, the No. 1 started to hold back some more on his forehand. This is why Ferrer got in to the match. Where Federer used his favorite wing to end rallies with one or two shots in the opening set, he was now taking some pace off, which for Ferrer meant he stayed in more rallies and got an extra split second to hit passing shots when Federer was moving forward. However, three horrendous misses at 3-4 cost him the break and consequently the second set. The Spaniard was up 30-15 on his own serve before he netted an easy backhand, missed a sitting backhand volley, and completely shanked a forehand to hand Federer the break. Federer served it out and ended the set winning the full 100% of points on his first serve.
With Federer up 6-2 6-3, the match was all but over. Federer broke serve at 2-1 in the third set with an outstanding running forehand passing shot, after Ferrer failed to put away a forehand volley. Federer ended the match with another break at 5-2, again passing Ferrer at net on his first match point.
I would say Federer played one of his best tournaments of the year in Shanghai, despite the unexpected loss to Gonzalez. Most of his matches were just plain solid, won without the utter brilliance that earned him so many fans during 2004 and 2005. But those days seem to be gone forever. The Roger Federer of 2007 has developed into a more conservative player, going for the smart play, instead of the out-of-this-world winners we remember so well from his early glory days. His footwork has deteriorated a little bit, which is why I don’t think he will ever triumph at Roland Garros. It’s also the reason why we’re seeing more ugly unforced errors from Federer nowadays.
Nevertheless, Federer will surely continue to be a dominate force on Tour over the next years. He will have to deal with increasing challenges from Nadal, Djokovic and probably Andy Murray for the No. 1 position, but for now though, the order has been restored.
But Federer proved that despite his endless winning streaks, he doesn’t get shaken up by one or two losses, and he surely isn’t scared about the tougher competition he’s been getting over the past months. It’s true that Nadal hasn’t reached his best form after Wimbledon, but Federer steamrolled past the Spaniard in the semis, and he was never troubled by David Ferrer in Sunday’s final either. By defending his Tennis Masters Cup title in style to end the season, Federer sends a message to his rivals that he is still king of the courts, even though he wasn’t even close to playing to his best in more than a couple of events over the past year. In the end, all that matters are his three Grand Slam crowns, and another year-end championship title, which marks another outstanding season for the Swiss.
Against Ferrer, Federer was playing extremely dominant tennis in the first set. He was ripping his forehands and never offered his opponent the opportunity to get in a rhythm, by constantly mixing up his play and keeping the rallies short. Ferrer never got close to the form he had displayed throughout the event.
I was a little surprised however, that after Federer won the opening set, the No. 1 started to hold back some more on his forehand. This is why Ferrer got in to the match. Where Federer used his favorite wing to end rallies with one or two shots in the opening set, he was now taking some pace off, which for Ferrer meant he stayed in more rallies and got an extra split second to hit passing shots when Federer was moving forward. However, three horrendous misses at 3-4 cost him the break and consequently the second set. The Spaniard was up 30-15 on his own serve before he netted an easy backhand, missed a sitting backhand volley, and completely shanked a forehand to hand Federer the break. Federer served it out and ended the set winning the full 100% of points on his first serve.
With Federer up 6-2 6-3, the match was all but over. Federer broke serve at 2-1 in the third set with an outstanding running forehand passing shot, after Ferrer failed to put away a forehand volley. Federer ended the match with another break at 5-2, again passing Ferrer at net on his first match point.
I would say Federer played one of his best tournaments of the year in Shanghai, despite the unexpected loss to Gonzalez. Most of his matches were just plain solid, won without the utter brilliance that earned him so many fans during 2004 and 2005. But those days seem to be gone forever. The Roger Federer of 2007 has developed into a more conservative player, going for the smart play, instead of the out-of-this-world winners we remember so well from his early glory days. His footwork has deteriorated a little bit, which is why I don’t think he will ever triumph at Roland Garros. It’s also the reason why we’re seeing more ugly unforced errors from Federer nowadays.
Nevertheless, Federer will surely continue to be a dominate force on Tour over the next years. He will have to deal with increasing challenges from Nadal, Djokovic and probably Andy Murray for the No. 1 position, but for now though, the order has been restored.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Federer, Ferrer way above rest of the field
Even though Roger Federer lost his opening encounter against Fernando Gonzalez in Shanghai, he wasn’t playing a poor match. Nikolay Davydenko and Andy Roddick didn’t come close to winning a set over the No. 1, and the Swiss capped his renowned form this week with a thumping win over Rafael Nadal in the semis.
Federer got off to a little bit of a tough start against Nadal, facing deficits and one break point in three of his service games in the opening set. However, just like in the Wimbledon final, his serve kept him safe from facing real trouble. Serving at 2-2, 0-30, Federer produced four straight aces, three of which went to Nadal’s forehand side. I like this play from Federer, as Nadal is better at returning powerful serves to his backhand, instead of with his long-swinging forehand.
Nadal was playing his best tennis of the week in this opening set. For the first time he managed to get some good depth on his groundstrokes, and he was getting a lot of free points off his serve as well. However, it always seemed to me as if Federer was in control, even though he was the one struggling most on his service games. Federer took the initiative in most of the rallies, because although Nadal was playing very solid – near the end of the first set the Spaniard had only hit one unforced error – he was never truly aggressive.
Serving at 4-5, Nadal showed that he is lacking the confidence that made him so imposing during the first half of the season. His balls were falling short again, he netted a backhand at 0-15, and put an easy forehand wide at 0-30. On his second set point, Federer struck a forehand winner down the line to claim the set.
With the lead under his belt, Federer rolled at the start of the second set. He claimed the first 13(!) points playing excellent attacking tennis, stepping into the court whenever possible and moving up to the net. A tactic he insisted on executing from the get-go, and which worked to perfection from this point on. I can’t recall another match these two played when Federer played aggressive tennis right from the very first point, all the way through to the end. He usually needed some time to feel his way into the match, or never even got to the point where he became the dominant player. During some of their clay court battles, Federer attacked Nadal early on, but couldn’t keep it up. Today, he was dominant from start to finish, and that’ll do him good.
When Nadal double faulted facing another break point at 0-3, the match was in the bag for Federer.
Nadal’s season has been almost an exact copy of how he performed in 2006. He started the year off playing aggressively, but from the moment he stepped on the American hard courts, Rafa seemed to have lost faith in his game because all the attacking spirits have vanished from his head. Although Nadal has narrowed the gap with Federer in ranking points in 2007, their match today showed that the younger player hasn’t picked up his game compared to last year. It was Federer who employed better tactics than before in battling his main rival, which earned him the convincing 6-4, 6-1 win in less than an hour.
If Nadal fails to develop into more than a formidable defensive player on hard courts, or better said, doesn’t play with the intention of forcing the issue on his opponents himself, like he did so well at Indian Wells and in Miami, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be the prime candidates to threaten Federer’s top spot over the next couple of years.
Ferrer comes out of nowhere
Just when you think you’ve seen enough miracle runs from one David, another one pops up. David Ferrer’s performance in Shanghai this week can be called exactly that: miraculous. There’s no way that anyone who is serious about tennis could have said after Wimbledon: “Hey, you know what, I believe David Ferrer will start playing some serious ball from now on, and end the year in the Top 5”. Be that as it may, the never-say-die Spaniard even has a chance to finish the year as No. 4, if he beats Federer on Sunday.
Ferrer was the only player in this year’s Masters Cup to come out of the round robins undefeated. He routed Andy Roddick in the semis - which will see him overtake the Rod as the No. 5 player in the rankings - in another display of rock-solid tennis. Roddick was outplayed in every sense of the word. He couldn’t use his serve as a weapon, he was unable to apply any pressure from the backcourt, his approach shots were too weak and wrongly timed, and when he did make it to the net, Ferrer came up with the passing shot time and time again.
After Wimbledon, Ferrer has put up a 5-2 record against Top 5 players. He beat Nadal at the US Open and this week in Shanghai, went 1-1 against Djokovic, defeated Roddick twice, and lost to Davydenko in Cincinnati. Against Federer, Ferrer is a career 0-7. However, the only set he won off the Swiss, came in their last meeting in Hamburg.
Ferrer has never played a major final and he is debuting at this year’s Masters Cup. Federer is playing some of his best tennis of the season, and therefore, the Swiss will be heavily favored in the championship match. However, if Ferrer plays like he has done all week, it’ll surely be a great encounter to watch. There’s no doubt that the two best players of the event have made it through to the final. Federer to win in four.
Federer got off to a little bit of a tough start against Nadal, facing deficits and one break point in three of his service games in the opening set. However, just like in the Wimbledon final, his serve kept him safe from facing real trouble. Serving at 2-2, 0-30, Federer produced four straight aces, three of which went to Nadal’s forehand side. I like this play from Federer, as Nadal is better at returning powerful serves to his backhand, instead of with his long-swinging forehand.
Nadal was playing his best tennis of the week in this opening set. For the first time he managed to get some good depth on his groundstrokes, and he was getting a lot of free points off his serve as well. However, it always seemed to me as if Federer was in control, even though he was the one struggling most on his service games. Federer took the initiative in most of the rallies, because although Nadal was playing very solid – near the end of the first set the Spaniard had only hit one unforced error – he was never truly aggressive.
Serving at 4-5, Nadal showed that he is lacking the confidence that made him so imposing during the first half of the season. His balls were falling short again, he netted a backhand at 0-15, and put an easy forehand wide at 0-30. On his second set point, Federer struck a forehand winner down the line to claim the set.
With the lead under his belt, Federer rolled at the start of the second set. He claimed the first 13(!) points playing excellent attacking tennis, stepping into the court whenever possible and moving up to the net. A tactic he insisted on executing from the get-go, and which worked to perfection from this point on. I can’t recall another match these two played when Federer played aggressive tennis right from the very first point, all the way through to the end. He usually needed some time to feel his way into the match, or never even got to the point where he became the dominant player. During some of their clay court battles, Federer attacked Nadal early on, but couldn’t keep it up. Today, he was dominant from start to finish, and that’ll do him good.
When Nadal double faulted facing another break point at 0-3, the match was in the bag for Federer.
Nadal’s season has been almost an exact copy of how he performed in 2006. He started the year off playing aggressively, but from the moment he stepped on the American hard courts, Rafa seemed to have lost faith in his game because all the attacking spirits have vanished from his head. Although Nadal has narrowed the gap with Federer in ranking points in 2007, their match today showed that the younger player hasn’t picked up his game compared to last year. It was Federer who employed better tactics than before in battling his main rival, which earned him the convincing 6-4, 6-1 win in less than an hour.
If Nadal fails to develop into more than a formidable defensive player on hard courts, or better said, doesn’t play with the intention of forcing the issue on his opponents himself, like he did so well at Indian Wells and in Miami, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be the prime candidates to threaten Federer’s top spot over the next couple of years.
Ferrer comes out of nowhere
Just when you think you’ve seen enough miracle runs from one David, another one pops up. David Ferrer’s performance in Shanghai this week can be called exactly that: miraculous. There’s no way that anyone who is serious about tennis could have said after Wimbledon: “Hey, you know what, I believe David Ferrer will start playing some serious ball from now on, and end the year in the Top 5”. Be that as it may, the never-say-die Spaniard even has a chance to finish the year as No. 4, if he beats Federer on Sunday.
Ferrer was the only player in this year’s Masters Cup to come out of the round robins undefeated. He routed Andy Roddick in the semis - which will see him overtake the Rod as the No. 5 player in the rankings - in another display of rock-solid tennis. Roddick was outplayed in every sense of the word. He couldn’t use his serve as a weapon, he was unable to apply any pressure from the backcourt, his approach shots were too weak and wrongly timed, and when he did make it to the net, Ferrer came up with the passing shot time and time again.
After Wimbledon, Ferrer has put up a 5-2 record against Top 5 players. He beat Nadal at the US Open and this week in Shanghai, went 1-1 against Djokovic, defeated Roddick twice, and lost to Davydenko in Cincinnati. Against Federer, Ferrer is a career 0-7. However, the only set he won off the Swiss, came in their last meeting in Hamburg.
Ferrer has never played a major final and he is debuting at this year’s Masters Cup. Federer is playing some of his best tennis of the season, and therefore, the Swiss will be heavily favored in the championship match. However, if Ferrer plays like he has done all week, it’ll surely be a great encounter to watch. There’s no doubt that the two best players of the event have made it through to the final. Federer to win in four.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Shanghai Preview
When David Nalbandian moved up to the ninth position in the ATP rankings after winning the Masters Series events in Madrid and Paris, he became the first alternate for the Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai. However, after he learned from Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko that they were not thinking about pulling out of the event, the Argentine decided to stay home and leave the $50,000 appearance fee for Tommy Robredo, who has taken his place. But, there are two alternate players for the Masters Cup, so 11th-ranked Andy Murray was also offered the $50k all-inclusive package trip to China. He declined. So did Tommy Haas. And James Blake. And Tomas Berdych. And the five players ranked below the Czech. So the second alternate player for the TMC is… Juan Ignacio Chela! And if you think that is crazy, if the Argentine would have passed on the offer, Ivo Karlovic would have likely taken the slot. Scary.
Red Group
Now let’s focus on those in action. One of the Bryan brothers, I believe it was Mike, recently said Andy Roddick’s chances of playing in Shanghai were only about 50%. Well, it seems Roddick can put Davis Cup out of his mind for the next week because he arrived on schedule in China on Thursday. Roddick finds himself in the red group, along with Fernando Gonzalez, Nikolay Davydenko, and Roger Federer, whom he held three match points against in their round robin match last year. After Roddick failed to win a set against Federer at the US Open, in what was possibly the best performance I have ever seen from the Texan, his chances to upset the Swiss this time around are looking slimmer than ever.
Davydenko is the longshot in this group with the form he is in, so the key match will probably be between Roddick and Gonzalez for second place. Gonzalez has been playing some better tennis again recently after a mediocre post-Aussie Open season, and given the lack of matches Roddick has played after the US Open, this could go either way. I’ll take the Rod to edge through.
Semifinalists: Roger Federer, Andy Roddick
Yellow Group
While the second group seems to be pretty much equally strong as the first, there are certainly more scenarios available with Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet put together. Nadal has gained some confidence after reaching the final of the Paris Masters Series event, but I’m still not impressed by the way Rafa is playing. Djokovic was clearly conserving energy in Paris by the way he went down to Fabrice Santoro, and he’ll surely want to end his season on a high note. Djokovic has beaten Nadal in straight sets on hard court in their last two matches, and I’m favoring the Serb to come through in Shanghai as well.
I don’t think Gasquet will be able to take down Rafa, but Ferrer has recently done so at the US Open. Ferrer will certainly be a threat to Nadal, but coming off a solid week in Paris, I’ll stick with the No. 2 to advance.
Semifinalists: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal
Federer – Nadal and Roddick – Djokovic. Would these be two semifinals to watch or what? Either match could go either way, and that hasn’t always been the case during the closing stages of major ATP events over the past years.
Nadal and Federer haven’t faced each other after their legendary match at Wimbledon, where the Spaniard came within touching distance of winning his first non-clay court Slam and unofficially claiming the No. 1 ranking.
Federer has again shown signs that he is no longer invincible by going down in two consecutive tournaments to Nalbandian, but Nadal has been far from dominant after Wimbledon, so a similar scenario to last year, when Federer also beat Nadal in the semis in Shanghai, is seemingly likely.
Djokovic and Roddick only faced each other once, in Montreal earlier this year. Back then it was the Serb who straight-setted Roddick en route to his memorable title run that included wins over Nadal and Federer in the final. Djokovic is more all-round than Roddick and he is fully committed to the event. The Rod will undoubtedly give it his best, but in the back of his head he is just warming up for the Davis Cup final in Portland.
Finalists: Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic
In the US Open final, Djokovic lost in three sets to Federer, but the whole match was decided on just a handful of points. What became clear in New York, and what Djokovic had already shown in Montreal, is that he can keep up with Federer during the rallies, and actually appears to be the more dominant player from the backcourt most of the time. The Djoker will be a legitimate contender at the Slams next year, but after a long breakthrough season, winning a best-of-five final over the Fed might be too much to ask.
Winner: Roger Federer
Red Group
Now let’s focus on those in action. One of the Bryan brothers, I believe it was Mike, recently said Andy Roddick’s chances of playing in Shanghai were only about 50%. Well, it seems Roddick can put Davis Cup out of his mind for the next week because he arrived on schedule in China on Thursday. Roddick finds himself in the red group, along with Fernando Gonzalez, Nikolay Davydenko, and Roger Federer, whom he held three match points against in their round robin match last year. After Roddick failed to win a set against Federer at the US Open, in what was possibly the best performance I have ever seen from the Texan, his chances to upset the Swiss this time around are looking slimmer than ever.
Davydenko is the longshot in this group with the form he is in, so the key match will probably be between Roddick and Gonzalez for second place. Gonzalez has been playing some better tennis again recently after a mediocre post-Aussie Open season, and given the lack of matches Roddick has played after the US Open, this could go either way. I’ll take the Rod to edge through.
Semifinalists: Roger Federer, Andy Roddick
Yellow Group
While the second group seems to be pretty much equally strong as the first, there are certainly more scenarios available with Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet put together. Nadal has gained some confidence after reaching the final of the Paris Masters Series event, but I’m still not impressed by the way Rafa is playing. Djokovic was clearly conserving energy in Paris by the way he went down to Fabrice Santoro, and he’ll surely want to end his season on a high note. Djokovic has beaten Nadal in straight sets on hard court in their last two matches, and I’m favoring the Serb to come through in Shanghai as well.
I don’t think Gasquet will be able to take down Rafa, but Ferrer has recently done so at the US Open. Ferrer will certainly be a threat to Nadal, but coming off a solid week in Paris, I’ll stick with the No. 2 to advance.
Semifinalists: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal
Federer – Nadal and Roddick – Djokovic. Would these be two semifinals to watch or what? Either match could go either way, and that hasn’t always been the case during the closing stages of major ATP events over the past years.
Nadal and Federer haven’t faced each other after their legendary match at Wimbledon, where the Spaniard came within touching distance of winning his first non-clay court Slam and unofficially claiming the No. 1 ranking.
Federer has again shown signs that he is no longer invincible by going down in two consecutive tournaments to Nalbandian, but Nadal has been far from dominant after Wimbledon, so a similar scenario to last year, when Federer also beat Nadal in the semis in Shanghai, is seemingly likely.
Djokovic and Roddick only faced each other once, in Montreal earlier this year. Back then it was the Serb who straight-setted Roddick en route to his memorable title run that included wins over Nadal and Federer in the final. Djokovic is more all-round than Roddick and he is fully committed to the event. The Rod will undoubtedly give it his best, but in the back of his head he is just warming up for the Davis Cup final in Portland.
Finalists: Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic
In the US Open final, Djokovic lost in three sets to Federer, but the whole match was decided on just a handful of points. What became clear in New York, and what Djokovic had already shown in Montreal, is that he can keep up with Federer during the rallies, and actually appears to be the more dominant player from the backcourt most of the time. The Djoker will be a legitimate contender at the Slams next year, but after a long breakthrough season, winning a best-of-five final over the Fed might be too much to ask.
Winner: Roger Federer
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